Clinton - Obama - Clinton - Obama

Quin luxe seguir les primàries americanes. Sembla els dos candidats no poden sortir de la situació d'empat. Sort que, com quasi sempre, els matemàtics ens venen al rescat:

"In game theory, the Nash equilibrium (named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which no player has anything to gain by changing only his or her own strategy unilaterally. If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing his or her strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium."

Potser els estrategues de campanya hauran de consultar (o haurien d'haver consultat) la wikipedia per agafar idees de com sortir d'aquest azzucac.

Obama va per davant en delegats i ha obtingut 600.000 mil vots més durant totes les primaries que la Hillary. Però Hillary ha vençut a tots els estats pesants de la unió: Texes, Ohio, Nova York i California. La senadora té un problema de matemàtiques i no li surten els números. Com a prova, les reflexions d'un col·laborador de la Hillary, ara que la carrera està començant a arribar al final.

"So I'm having lunch with an old friend from the Clinton administration today, a veteran of the '92 and '96 campaigns and top-notch political operative, a true-blue Hillary loyalist who has maxed out to her campaign, took time off to go to Iowa for the last two weeks, helped out in the Potomac primary, etc. She is feeling guilty about not being in Ohio or Texas for these last few days, bemoaning the way the campaign has gone, talking emotionally about what a great President that Hillary would be.
At some point, I gently ask the question that has been on my mind for awhile: even if you get good news tonight, is there any scenario you see for a Hillary nomination that doesn't involve a really, really ugly endgame? You know, a nasty credentials fight, high-pressure arm-twisting and unseemly deal-cutting with superdelegates, continued trashing of Obama on every imaginable topic?
There was silence across the table. She said, "No, I can't think of any other way at this point."

Quin luxe de primàries. Dos monstres de la política lluitant amb esperança fins al final, mentre respecten al seu oponent amb una classe innegable. Acceptant que Hillary seria una grandíssima candidata, Kos ens explica algunes de les raons que converteixen Obama en un fenómen excepcional.

"For all the people bellyaching over dkos-Obama love, isn't it obvious why? It's not really about the candidate, kos likes both of them. It's about HOW they are pulling off successes in the primaries. Obama's campaign shows the fruits of the very things kos and dkos in general has promoted. People powered politics, 21st century grassroots/netroots, internet fundraising, raising the level of involvement among the electorate, run a 50-state campaign.

Hillary's campaign represents the old way of running a political race. Lock up the establishment. Get endorsements, and do the usual GOTV operation, focus on the democratic strongholds, do traditional fundraisers with big spenders, etc.

The story of the 2008 democratic primary if Obama wins will not be the cult of Obama meme, or the people hate Hillary meme, or the media hates Hillary meme. When the dust settles, and people look back and analyze how Obama pulled this upset off, they will look at the kind of things which are so exciting to kos to see utilized in a victorious campaign."

Hillary, això sí, no se li podrà negar haver tingut energia per aguantar amb esperança fins al final. Va ser molt curiós com, mentre feia el seu discurs triomfal ahir, els seus suporters coregessin: "Yes she can!".